Trend of the Tory vote - by John Ross

Updated from Thatcher and Friends, The Anatomy of the Tory Party by John Ross

A purely mechanical projection of the long term trend of the Tory vote would put the Conservatives support at the next election at very slightly under 39%. 'Purely mechanical' anythings should be avoided but it does not look from the opinion polls that the Tories are capable of breaking out of their historical decline and a 'purely mechanical' projection of the trend is not very far out- hence the narrowing of the gap between the parties. The decisive question of course will be how high Labour is capable of getting its vote up to. But the bar the Tories are capable of putting up is not extremely high. All the evidence is the Tories continue to be a party in decline.

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